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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.