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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."